Nuclear denial: From Hiroshima to Fukushima
                  
Abstract
Governments and the nuclear power industry
 have a strong interest in playing down the harmful effects of radiation
 from atomic
                     weapons and nuclear power plants. Over the years, 
some scientists have supported the view that low levels of radiation are
                     not harmful, while other scientists have held that 
all radiation is harmful. The author examines the radiation effects of
                     nuclear bombs dropped on Japan in 1945; nuclear 
weapons testing; plutonium plant accidents at Windscale in England and 
Chelyabinsk
                     in the Soviet Union; nuclear power plant emissions 
during normal operations; and the power plant accidents at Three Mile 
Island
                     in the United States, Chernobyl in the Soviet 
Union, and Fukushima Daiichi in Japan. In each case, he finds a pattern 
of minimizing
                     the damage to humans and attributing evidence of 
shortened life spans mostly to stress and social dislocation rather than
                     to radiation. While low-level radiation is now 
generally accepted as harmful, its effects are deemed to be so small 
that they
                     cannot be distinguished from the much greater 
effects of stress and social dislocation. Thus, some scientists declare 
that
                     there is no point in even studying the populations 
exposed to the radioactive elements released into the atmosphere during
                     the 2011 accident at Fukushima.
                  
 
The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, which
 began in March 2011, is unique in many respects: the massive tsunami, 
the multiple
                  reactor meltdowns, the rats gnawing through 
switchboards, the struggle to contain huge amounts of radioactive water.
 But when
                  it comes to the human health impacts of the ongoing 
emergency in Japan, it’s déjà vu all over again, as Yogi Berra would 
say.
                  Fukushima is an eerie replay of the denial and 
controversy that began with the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and 
Nagasaki.
                  The 2011 headlines differ little from those that 
appeared in 1945: “Survey Rules Out Nagasaki Dangers” then, and “Experts
                  Foresee No Detectable Health Impact from Fukushima 
Radiation” now (
Greene, 2012; 
Revkin, 2013).
 This is the same nuclear denial that also greeted nuclear bomb tests, 
plutonium plant disasters at Windscale in northern
                  England and Chelyabinsk in the Ural Mountains, and the
 nuclear power plant accidents at Three Mile Island in the United States
                  and Chernobyl in what is now Ukraine.
               
Today, the scientific community remains 
divided over the effects of low-level radiation, with a significant 
minority of experts
                  holding that low levels are essentially harmless, 
while the majority says that all levels are harmful to some degree (
Beyea, 2012). Estimates of how many people will die as a result of radiation released from Fukushima range from none (
UNSCEAR, 2013) to 1,400 people developing cancer as a result of just the first year of exposure to fallout in the contaminated regions
                  outside the evacuation zone (
Rosen, 2012).
               
The Fukushima disagreement is only the latest
 chapter in a 68-year-old story. Although it may seem that the two 
scientific
                  camps are not far apart, the question of whether there
 is any threshold for radiation impacts is a critical one. Unlike the
                  climate debate, nuclear “deniers” are not a tiny 
minority but rather are respected members of the scientific community 
who
                  specialize in radiation effects. Most of these experts
 no longer contend that there is zero harm in low-level radiation, but
                  rather that the range of uncertainty includes zero: In
 other words, low-level health effects may exist, but they are too small
                  to measure. This view preserves the status quo, since 
there is no point in comprehensively measuring low-level radiation 
effects
                  or taking aggressive steps to prevent harm. Nuclear 
denial creates scientific ambiguity that provides cover for governmental
                  and commercial interests and allows nuclear power to 
continue expanding worldwide.
               
                  
Fukushima’s health effects
Soon after the Fukushima Daiichi disaster 
began, industry organizations, governments, and international agencies 
declared
                     that there were not likely to be any long-term 
radiation dangers. One of the first was a spokesperson for the Nuclear 
Energy
                     Institute, a nuclear energy trade group, who 
declared three months after the accident that “no health effects are 
expected
                     among the Japanese people as a result of the events
 at Fukushima” (
Nuclear Energy Institute, 2011).
                  
The World Health Organization was also 
reassuring, stating that while people worldwide receive about 3 
millisieverts of radiation
                     per year from sources including background 
radiation and medical procedures, only two Japanese communities had 
effective dose
                     rates of 10 to 50 millisieverts, a bit higher than 
normal.
1 The rest of the Fukushima prefecture and neighboring prefectures were below 10 millisieverts (
Brumfiel, 2012; 
World Health Organization, 2012b).
                  
Experts convened in Vienna by the United 
Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation 
concluded: “Radiation
                     exposure following the nuclear accident at 
Fukushima-Daiichi did not cause any immediate health effects. It is 
unlikely to
                     be able to attribute any health effects in the 
future among the general public and the vast majority of workers” (
UNSCEAR, 2013).
                  
A public health study at Fukushima Medical
 University reported that only 0.7 percent of people exposed received 
doses above
                     10 millisieverts in the first four months after the
 accident, and that the highest recorded dose was 23 millisieverts, well
                     below the 100-millisievert exposure level at which 
the World Health Organization estimates a slight increase in cancer risk
                     (
Brumfiel and Fuyuno, 2012).
                  
An article in 
Scientific American (republished in 
Nature)
 saw no health effects from radiation and was positively jolly. While 
one expert quoted in the article said that victims
                     could no longer get the usual treatments for their 
conditions because of disruptions in the health system, he also said 
they
                     “are probably getting better care than they were 
before” the accident (
Harmon, 2012).
                  
Other studies, however, have raised 
considerable alarm. German pediatrician Alex Rosen examined reports from
 Japanese agencies
                     that came to quite different conclusions than US 
and international agencies such as the World Health Organization. One 
example,
                     from the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, 
Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), indicated that a child living in
                     Iitate (a village in Fukushima prefecture) and 
spending about eight hours a day outside would be exposed to about 148 
millisieverts
                     during the course of a year—100 times the natural 
background radiation in Japan of 1.48 millisieverts per year (
Rosen, 2012).
                  
Medical checks by the Minami-Soma 
municipal hospital using whole-body counters reportedly found that more 
than half of the
                     527 children examined during and after September 
2011 had internal exposure to cesium-137, one of the isotopes that pose 
the
                     greatest risk to human health following nuclear 
accidents (
Sentaku, 2012).
                  
The French Institute for Radiological 
Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) also tells an alarming story. The 
institute found
                     areas with ambient dose rates 20 to 40 times higher
 than natural background radiation, and in the most contaminated areas
                     the rates were 10 times those elevated dose rates (
IRSN, 2012:).
 While the World Health Organization report found just two communities 
with doses of 10 to 50 millisieverts, IRSN found
                     places in four municipalities where doses could 
have been higher than 25 millisieverts, and noted this was without 
counting
                     plume exposure or consumption of contaminated 
foodstuffs (
IRSN, 2012).
 Contamination at levels above 50 millisieverts could have occurred as far as 60 kilometers south of the power plant (
IRSN, 2012). Close to 70,000 people living outside the evacuation zone were likely to receive a dose greater than 10 millisieverts in
                     the first year, the report said (
IRSN, 2012).
                  
Nuclear physicist Frank N. von Hippel initially estimated 1,000 extra cancer deaths from radiation by extrapolating from an
                     estimate of 16,000 cancer deaths caused by Chernobyl (
von Hippel, 2011). More recently, von Hippel and others have estimated from 1,000 to 3,000 cancer deaths (
Beyea et al., 2013; 
Fairlie, 2013).
                  
 
                  
Nuclear bomb fallout
Contradictory messages about radiation 
effects are nothing new. In 1945, the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki 
created radioactive
                     fallout that contaminated food sources and the 
landscape. The US government minimized the damages immediately. Based on
 government
                     reports, a headline in the 
New York Times claimed, “No Radioactivity in Hiroshima Ruin.” Three weeks later, under the headline “Survey Rules Out Nagasaki Dangers,”
                     the subhead in the 
New York Times said, “Radioactivity after Atomic Bomb Is Only 1,000th of that from Luminous Dial Watch” (
Greene, 2012).
                  
The denial continued long after the initial blasts. In 1953, the Atomic Energy Commission insisted that low-level exposure
                     to radiation “can be continued indefinitely without any detectable bodily change” (
Johnston, 2007).
 In 1954, the United States exploded a powerful hydrogen bomb in the 
Marshall Islands, releasing a huge amount of cesium-137.
                     The fallout area was wider than expected. Marshall 
Island citizens were exposed to life-threatening doses of radioactive 
fallout,
                     as were Japanese fishermen outside the official 
danger zone. There was a public outcry, but the Atomic Energy Commission
 saw
                     it as an opportunity. One scientist said, with 
ghoulish racism: “It would be very interesting to go back and get good 
environmental
                     data [on what happens] … when people live in a 
contaminated environment. … While it is true that these people do not 
live,
                     I would say, the way Westerners do, civilized 
people, it is nevertheless also true that they are more like us than the
 mice”
                     (
Alvarez, 2010).
                  
The aftermath of the 1954 test created a 
fissure in the scientific community. Atomic scientists said that while 
high levels
                     of radiation could kill, low levels were not 
harmful. But geneticists said that all levels of radiation exposure were
 harmful.
                     The two factions reached a fragile consensus in a 
1956 report by the National Academy of Sciences. Biologists on the 
committee
                     successfully established that all radiation was 
harmful, but representatives of the Atomic Energy Commission succeeded 
in
                     promoting a statistical or population approach, 
which diluted the danger. One member of the Academy’s research team 
pointed
                     to the problem: The number of children handicapped 
by genetic mutations per 1,000 live births might only increase from 20
                     to 22, but in the United States alone this would 
mean something like an additional 300,000 handicapped children per 
generation—a
                     different framing than a small increase of two per 
1,000 (
Hamblin, 2007).
                  
The passage of time allowed more cancers 
to appear, and by 2005 it was clear that any dose of radiation was 
harmful, and scientists
                     had found a linear increase in risk with increasing
 radiation doses. They had also identified other damaging health effects
                     besides cancers: in particular, genetic changes 
passed on to succeeding generations. There was no threshold below which 
radiation
                     exposure was harmless (
National Research Council, 2006).
 Still, some scientists, even radiation experts, continue to speak of 
radiation in relative language—comparing exposure
                     with x-rays, for example—rather than acknowledging 
that any additional radiation is harmful and still insist that there is
                     a threshold below which there is no harm.
                  
What, in fact, were the long-term effects of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs? Reports estimate a total of about 1,900 excess
                     leukemia deaths and cases of other cancers can be attributed to radiation (
Radiation Effects Research Foundation, 2007). This is not a gigantic number compared with roughly 200,000 deaths from the bombs’ immediate effects, but it is not as
                     negligible as the US government’s estimate of 430 cancer deaths (
US Department of Homeland Security, n.d.).
                  
 
                  
Nuclear weapons processing
As the United States, the Soviet Union, 
the United Kingdom, and other countries expanded their nuclear arsenals,
 another problem
                     emerged. In 1957, a fire in a nuclear reactor at 
the British plutonium-manufacturing plant at Windscale burned for five 
days,
                     sending radioactive material over a large area of 
Cumbria. The event was not made public and no evacuation was ordered. 
The
                     accident resulted in an estimated 240 cancers among
 those living near the site (
Corey, 1979; 
Morelle, 2007).
 But, as with the link between smoking and cancer, some scientists 
disputed the cancer connection. One imaginative research
                     account attributes the documented rise in childhood
 leukemia to “population mixing,” wherein rural children who have not 
acquired
                     the usual immunity to childhood leukemia move to an
 urban place where they can be exposed (
Kinlen, 2011).
                  
A much more serious accident, also in 
1957, was a huge explosion at the Chelyabinsk nuclear weapons processing
 plant in the
                     eastern Ural Mountains of the Soviet Union. One 
estimate is that 272,000 people were irradiated; lakes and streams were 
contaminated,
                     and radioactivity levels are still extremely high 
in some areas (
Hertsgaard, 2006).
 The world did not know of this event for decades; the Soviet Union 
thought it was essential to keep it secret. The CIA
                     knew of it immediately but also kept it secret. If a
 processing plant could do that much damage, it would be a powerful 
argument
                     against building nuclear weapons.
                  
 
                  
Nuclear power
By exploiting the peaceful uses of the 
atom—in medicine, earth removal, and later in nuclear power 
plants—nuclear deniers
                     embarked on an ambitious program to dissipate fears
 about things nuclear and gain acceptance for nuclear weapons. One 
element
                     in the “friendly atom” program was Project 
Plowshare, in which atomic explosions would enlarge harbors and the 
Panama Canal.
                     The chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission 
announced that the project was intended to “highlight the peaceful 
applications
                     of nuclear explosive devices and thereby create a 
climate of world opinion that is 
more favorable to weapons development and tests” (Strauss, quoted in 
Kuznick, 2011, emphasis added). As a Pentagon official put it in 1953: “The atomic bomb will be accepted far more readily if at the same
                     time atomic energy is being used for constructive ends” (
Osgood, 2008: 156).
                  
Nuclear power became the major vehicle 
for this constructive change. The relationship between weapons and power
 is intimate;
                     nuclear power plants produce low-grade plutonium 
that can be reprocessed into weapon-grade plutonium. As State Department
                     Attorney William H. Taft IV warned in 1981, the 
civilian nuclear power industry could be seriously damaged because of 
the
                     “mistaken impression” that low-level radiation is 
hazardous (
Greene, 2012).
 It was not a mistaken impression. In 1953, an American anthropologist 
working for the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission showed
                     that Japanese children who were exposed to fallout 
were not only smaller than their counterparts but also had less 
resistance
                     to disease in general and were more susceptible to 
cancer, especially leukemia. The report was censored (
Johnston, 2011). But there would be more.
                  
 
                  
Power plant accidents
After bomb testing ended, a new demon 
emerged: the possibility of a serious power plant accident. Following 
the Three Mile
                     Island accident in 1979, a Columbia University 
study found increases in some cancers—but there were factors that ruled 
out
                     a cancer link, one of which was that the level of 
radiation was said to be too low to have caused them. What, then, could
                     have caused the increase? The researchers suggested
 it was stress (
Hatch et al., 1991). A group of citizens that was suing the utility asked for a second study (
Wing, 2003).
 Lawyers for the litigants supported a nonprofit group that financed a 
new analysis of the data by researchers from the
                     University of North Carolina. They found: “Accident
 doses were positively associated with cancer incidence. Associations 
were
                     largest for leukemia, intermediate for lung cancer,
 and smallest for all cancers combined; larger for longer than for 
shorter
                     latency; and larger with adjustment for 
socioeconomic variables” (
Wing et al., 1997: 52). In a lengthy trial, the federal judge disagreed, finding that “the paucity of proof” by the plaintiffs was “manifest.”
                  
A later study at the University of 
Pittsburgh once again reviewed the data, but this time it followed 
residents not just to
                     1985, as had the previous studies, but to 1998. The
 researchers found only slight increases of both overall mortality and
                     overall cancer mortality. Thus they concluded that 
there was “no consistent evidence” of “a significant impact” (
Talbott et al., 2003: 341).
                  
Large uncertainties remain. People who left the area were not included in the sample; the track of the radioactive plume could
                     only be grossly estimated; individual exposures could not be measured; and, as 
Wing (2003)
 noted in a lengthy critique, the studies that found no impact were set 
to avoid overestimation of radiation effects, and
                     thus risked underestimation. About 13 percent of 
all deaths are due to various forms of cancer, and aside from direct 
penetrating
                     radiations, almost every instance of cancer that 
could
 have come from radiation could instead have come from other sources. 
These cancers existed before the nuclear age, just as
                     lung cancers existed before smoking was widespread.
 There could always be an alternative explanation. The issue is ripe for
                     what British sociologist Linsey 
McGoey (2012) calls “the mobilization of ambiguity.”
                  
The Soviet Union successfully mobilized 
this ambiguity after the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, when Soviet prestige 
was at stake.
                     The government suppressed medical studies by Soviet
 scientists, and doctors were told not to use the designation of 
leukemia
                     in health reports. But as the years went by and 
radioactive particles in the air, earth, plants, and animals did their 
work,
                     life expectancy in the polluted areas of Belarus, 
Ukraine, and southern Russia fell sharply. Twenty-seven years later, 
Germany
                     still requires testing of wild boar meat; some 
reindeer in Scandinavian countries are still contaminated; areas of 
Ukraine
                     and Belarus closest to the plant are still 
off-limits.
                  
Today, estimates of the damage from 
radiation vary to an astounding degree. United Nations agencies 
generally cite 4,000 premature
                     deaths in the contaminated areas of Ukraine, 
Belarus, and Russia, while Greenpeace puts the figure at 200,000 (
Greenpeace, 2006). Then there is the very controversial estimate of 985,000 premature cancer deaths worldwide between 1986 and 2004 made by
                     Russian scientists with access to thousands of Russian, Belarusian, and Ukrainian publications (
Yablokov and Nesterenko, 2010; 
Yablokov et al., 2009).
                  
The easiest way to play down the damage 
in the face of evidence of sharp declines in life expectancy is to say 
that these
                     declines are only partly related to radiation, and 
mostly to other causes. Stress is an obvious one, but the Soviet Union
                     piled on with more general “lifestyle” causes. The 
International Atomic Energy Agency agreed, saying that designating the
                     affected population as “victims” rather than 
“survivors” “has led them to perceive themselves as helpless, weak and 
lacking
                     control over their future. This, in turn, has led 
either to over cautious behavior and exaggerated health concerns, or to
                     reckless conduct, such as consumption of mushrooms,
 berries and game from areas still designated as highly contaminated, 
overuse
                     of alcohol and tobacco, and unprotected promiscuous
 sexual activity” (
International Atomic Energy Agency, n.d.).
                  
 
                  
“Normal” operation
Even the normal operation of a nuclear 
power plant is expected to release some radiation. While most studies 
have concluded
                     there is no risk to human health, some see 
radiation damages. A study published in 2002 looked at the health 
effects on children
                     in the two years following the closing of eight US 
nuclear plants in 1987. Strontium-90 levels in local milk declined 
sharply,
                     as did death rates of infants who lived downwind 
and within 40 miles of the plants, suggesting a link between low-dose 
radiation
                     from gases emitted by the plants and early deaths (
Mangano et al., 2002).
                  
The research task is daunting. Children 
are the most vulnerable population, and the biggest risk is childhood 
leukemia, so
                     most studies focus on this. But since the disease 
is rare among children, a doubling of the tiny number of expected deaths
                     is still so small it is hard to detect. In 2007, a 
German study found increased rates of childhood leukemia in the vicinity
                     of all 16 nuclear power plants in Germany. Children
 who lived less than 5 kilometers (about 3 miles) from a plant were more
                     than twice as likely to develop leukemia as 
children who lived more than 5 kilometers away. It should not surprise 
us that,
                     despite their findings of leukemia, the study’s 
authors said they could not determine the cause (
Federal Office for Radiation Protection, 2009). It could not be radiation because the levels were too low!
                  
A French study, for the years 2002 to 
2007, found a clear correlation between the frequency of acute childhood
 leukemia and
                     proximity to 19 nuclear power stations. The study 
reported a doubling of childhood leukemia incidence under the age of 
five,
                     but the researchers concluded that there was only a
 “possible” excess risk for this cancer, and are explicit that it cannot
                     be attributed to gaseous discharges because the 
radiation is so low. They called for more studies (
Sermage-Faure et al., 2012). A meta-study of 136 reactor sites in seven countries, extended to include children up to age nine, found childhood leukemia
                     increases of 14 percent to 21 percent (
Baker and Hoel, 2007).
                  
 
                  
Assessing Fukushima
Epidemiological studies of children and 
adults living near the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant will face 
the same obstacles
                     as earlier studies. It will take decades for all 
radiation damages to appear, and many experts deny that there will be 
any
                     significant long-term effects. “In terms of the 
health impact, the radiation is negligible,” said Richard Garfield, a 
professor
                     at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public 
Health. “The radiation will cause very few, close to no deaths.” Thomas
                     McKone of the University of California, Berkeley, 
School of Public Health agreed: “Much of the damage was really 
psychological—the
                     stress of not knowing, of being relocated” (
Harmon, 2012).
                  
While the Japanese government plans an 
extensive and expensive health follow-up on citizens from the Fukushima 
area, American
                     radiological experts say it is not worth it. David 
Brenner, a radiologist at Columbia University, doubts a direct link will
                     ever be definitively made. He said that, under 
normal circumstances, in a developed country such as Japan, “40 percent 
of
                     everybody will get cancer. It doesn’t seem to me 
that it’s possible to do an epidemiological study that will see an 
increased
                     risk.” He did add that it might be valuable to 
conduct studies to reassure the population that they are not being 
misled (
Brumfiel, 2012: 3).
                  
In a panel discussion of Fukushima at the
 National Press Club in March 2012, John Boice Jr., a medical 
epidemiologist who
                     now heads the National Council on Radiation 
Protection and Measurements, said: “There’s no opportunity for 
conducting epidemiological
                     studies that have any chance of success. … The 
doses are just too low” (
Wald, 2012).
 He emphasized the stumbling block that haunts the radiation field: the 
lower the dose, the greater the difficulty in detecting
                     any increase in the number of cancers possibly 
attributable to radiation.
                  
In late February, the 
World Health Organization (2013)
 announced its latest assessment of Fukushima, nearly two years after 
the event. CNN summarized it under the headline “Fukushima’s
                     Radiation Damaged More Souls Than Bodies” (
Brumfield, 2013).
 Any increase in human disease, the WHO report said, is “likely to 
remain below detectable levels.” The report modeled estimated
                     doses from sub-optimal data, rather than from 
direct measures of exposure or the consequences of exposure. (It is 
worth noting
                     that the WHO still only releases reports on 
radiation impacts in consultation with the International Atomic Energy 
Agency.)
                  
One direct examination has been 
conducted: In its 10th report, dated March 2013, the Fukushima 
Prefecture Health Management
                     Survey reported examining 133,000 children using 
new, highly sensitive ultrasound equipment. The survey found that 41 
percent
                     of the children examined had cysts of up to 2 
centimeters in size and lumps measuring up to 5 millimeters on their 
thyroid
                     glands, presumably from inhaled and ingested 
radioactive iodine. However, the survey found no cause for alarm because
 the
                     cysts and lumps were too small to warrant further 
examination. The defense ministry also conducted an ultrasound 
examination
                     of children from three other prefectures distant 
from Fukushima and found somewhat elevated percentages of small cysts 
and
                     lumps, arguing that radiation was not the cause (
Oiwa, 2013).
                  
A June 9, 2013 article in the 
Japan Times reported on the latest findings of the Fukushima Medical University survey, which found that 12 of 175,499 children had tested
                     positive for possible thyroid cancer, and 15 more were deemed at high risk of developing the disease (
Osaki, 2013).
 This might be considered a small number for a population of this size, 
giving authorities even more grounds for finding
                     no radiation damages. However, children on other 
continents have not had this type of ultrasound examination, so no 
normal
                     rate has been established. Experts concerned about 
radiation effects point out that the small cysts and lumps found in many
                     of the children surveyed, which are signs of 
possible thyroid cancer, have appeared alarmingly soon after the 
accident; that
                     the radiation would not be expected to be limited 
to the Fukushima prefecture; that there is evidence of unusual numbers 
of
                     cysts and growths in children living on the West 
Coast of the United States (
Mangano and Sherman, 2013);
 that it is not clear that the Fukushima survey subjects were randomly 
selected (some refused examination); and finally,
                     that it will take some years to see whether the 
abnormalities increase in size, so follow-ups are essential (
Caldicott, 2012; 
Osaki, 2013; 
RT, 2013).
                  
 
                  
Echoes of the past
The denial that Fukushima has any 
significant health impacts echoes the denials of the atomic bomb effects
 in 1945; the secrecy
                     surrounding Windscale and Chelyabinsk; the studies 
suggesting that the fallout from Three Mile Island was, in fact, 
serious;
                     and the multiple denials regarding Chernobyl (that 
it happened, that it was serious, and that it is still serious).
                  
Will Fukushima make nations reject 
nuclear power? It appears not. In June 2012, the US Department of Energy
 granted $800,000
                     to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to 
address the “difficulties in gaining the broad social acceptance” of 
nuclear
                     power. The Energy Department, as we have seen, has 
been attempting this for half a century. Giant companies such as Areva
                     in France and South Korean firms are building more 
plants. In the United States, while three plants are being retired for
                     mechanical reasons and one because its electricity 
is more expensive than power from gas-fired plants, construction is 
still
                     going ahead for four US reactors. Europe is not on 
board. Germany is planning to shut down all its existing plants, and 
other
                     European countries are phasing them out. But China 
leads the way in construction, and India is not far behind. While the 
picture
                     is mixed, and cheap natural gas may greatly weaken 
the US nuclear industry, the number of plants worldwide will continue to
                     grow.
                  
Ambiguities about radiation’s effects 
have at times appeared to be purposeful. Vast investments are at stake 
in both the weapons
                     and the nuclear power industries, and there is 
enough ambiguity about low-level radiation and its social acceptance to 
keep
                     government-sponsored grants flowing to scientists.
                  
While international agencies now agree that there is no threshold below which radiation can be deemed harmless, that does
                     not translate into policy recommendations for evacuations or power plant closures (
Thompson, 2012). Only one United Nations agency, the UN Human Rights Council, has shown alarm about the post-disaster radiological effects,
                     referring to them as “immense and long-term” and calling for greater transparency and accountability (
Grover, 2013).
 Even if the only health impacts of nuclear power plants—during normal 
operations or following a serious accident—were stress
                     and “nuclear phobia,” the risks of these human 
costs (which are said to include premature deaths) must be weighed 
against
                     the advantages of producing nuclear power and 
weapon-grade plutonium. Denials of radiation effects only exacerbate 
stress,
                     by undermining public trust.
                  
While “no harm in low-level radiation” is
 an increasingly minority view, it has been replaced by “too low to 
measure any harm,”
                     which is a handy excuse for continuing business as 
usual. For some scientists, it means there is no point in measuring the
                     effects. The Japanese government assures the world 
that Fukushima victims will be closely monitored.
2 The same government, however, assured the world that an accident like this could never happen.
                  
 
                  
Funding
This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
 
                  
Article Notes
- 
                        
                        
                        
- 
                        
                        
                        
↵2
 After a November 2012 mission to Japan, the Special Rapporteur for the 
UN Human Rights Council prepared a report that commended
                           the government on steps taken to monitor the 
health of the population affected by Fukushima, but pointed out 
significant gaps
                           in monitoring (see  Grover, 2013).
                         
 
 
                  
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US Department of Homeland Security (n.d.) . 
 
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World Health Organization (2012a) . 
 
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World Health Organization (2012b) . 
 
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World Health Organization (2013) . 
 
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Author biography
                     Charles Perrow is an emeritus 
professor of sociology at Yale University and a visiting professor at 
Stanford University’s Center for International
                     Security and Cooperation. An organizational 
theorist, he is the author of six books, including The Next Catastrophe (Princeton University Press, 2011) and the award-winning Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies (Princeton University Press, 1999). His current research focuses on the institutional and organizational aspects of global
                     warming.