Petraeus: The next American century
First Published Feb 02 2015 06:21AM
•
Last Updated Feb 03 2015 09:09 am
By David H. Petraeus
and Michael O'Hanlon
Special to The Washington Post
Short-term economic trends in the United
States are encouraging. Unemployment is down, growth is up, deficits are
less than half what they were during the "Great Recession," gas prices
have plummeted, citizens have "deleveraged" their debt considerably and
consumer sentiment is very positive.
For many, however, these realities are merely a
soothing veneer over a troubled picture. They see America in decline,
the middle class adrift, the world in shambles and political acrimony
more entrenched than ever over issues ranging from immigration and U.S.
policy on Iran and Cuba to taxes and health care. This pessimism is not
limited to the home front. With major U.S. allies in Europe and East
Asia enduring sustained economic malaise, worrisome demographics and
declining power, many believe the Western world is in retreat.
Those sentiments are generally unfounded,
however, when it comes to the United States and North America. Recent
positive headlines have not masked deeper problems so much as they have
heralded the kind of future this nation can enjoy - especially if
political leaders can make a few sensible, non-Herculean compromises on
issues that beg attention.
The United States is, in fact, better
positioned than any other country for the next 20 to 30 years - and,
very likely, beyond. Together with Canada and Mexico, the United States
also enjoys mutually reinforcing sources of competitive advantages in
geopolitics, demographics, energy and natural resources, manufacturing
and industrial competitiveness and, above all, innovation and
technology. If the 20th century was the American Century, the 21st is
poised to be the North American Century.
Since we first offered this view some two years
ago in The Post, a number of favorable trends have solidified or even
accelerated:
• The United States is now the world's largest
producer of both oil liquids and natural gas, with Canada and Mexico
important players in the energy arena, as well.
• U.S. manufacturing, while still far from its
heyday, has added hundreds of thousands of jobs over the past two years,
and Mexico is now fully competitive with China and other Asian
manufacturing hubs in a variety of industries.
• The United States leads the world in high-tech sectors such as aerospace and pharmaceuticals.
• The U.S. federal budget deficit, while still
too high, is below 3 percent of gross domestic product, and publicly
held debt as a fraction of the GDP has stabilized at around 75 percent.
• Relative to GDP, U.S. household debt is down significantly from pre-Great Recession levels.
• U.S. small business confidence is the highest
it has been in nine years, and consumer confidence is at its highest in
11 years.
• Crime rates in America are the lowest in a generation.
• America's demographics are far and away the
healthiest among the developed economies, as well as Russia, China and
India, with a nice and steady 1 percent annual population growth rate.
• The U.S. military, while under budgetary
strain and still in harm's way, has weathered not only the brunt of wars
in Iraq and Afghanistan but also the ax of "sequestration" and downward
pressure on budgets for half a decade.
• The United States and Germany are, according
to the World Economic Forum, neck and neck in respective claims to be
the world's most competitive major economy. U.S. strengths in market
size, entrepreneurial culture and financial networks roughly equal
Germany's strengths in modern manufacturing and social cohesion.
• U.S. GDP growth is now exceeding 3 percent.
Indeed, at present it appears that the U.S. economy may, for the first
time in some nine years, grow more in absolute dollar terms than China's
does. (China's growth rate, though declining, is likely to be nearly
twice as fast; however, as measured in classic terms, its GDP is still
only a bit over half as large as our own.)
This last point is crucial. China has recorded
historic achievements, but its ascent to superpowerdom is not a given.
Leaving aside the limited appeal of China's political and economic
model, it faces the imperatives of transitioning from a low-cost labor
provider to a value-added and services economy, reducing the world's
largest debt-to-GDP ratio, cutting pollution and corruption, dealing
with insufficiently competitive state-owned enterprises and addressing
numerous other domestic challenges.
In fact, Brookings Institution
scholar David Dollar has argued that, even if China overtakes the United
States in absolute GDP within a couple of decades, the United States
may regain the top spot later in the century, especially if China's
political model remains autocratic.
There is, of course, much that the United
States needs to do. We need comprehensive immigration reform. Our
education system is highly uneven in quality and requires an overhaul to
prepare students for the economy of the future. Our lower and middle
economic classes have seen minimal real wage growth since the Great
Recession. Crime is still high by Western standards. And the U.S.
deficit will get worse again within a half-decade or so if nothing is
done on entitlement spending and tax reform.
Beyond that, our
infrastructure - which is central to future productivity gains - needs
major improvement. And, of course, climate changes remain a threat, as
do Islamic extremist groups and Iran, as well as Russia.
Regardless, more than any nation on Earth, and
arguably more than any in history, the United States has the assets
needed to confront its problems head-on. Indeed, however our nation's
political parties differ on a variety of issues, Democrats and
Republicans should agree on one proposition: This is another American
century, and the future has seldom looked brighter. Washington
policymakers do not need to rescue the nation from the precipice so much
as to make reasonable, mid-size compromises on a number of policies and
otherwise get out of the way.
Previously in 2007, Obama stated similar views in an article he wrote, exclusively, for Foreign Affairs Magazine:
http://wallstreetsfriend.blogspot.com/2011/04/renewing-american-leadership-by-barack.html
